The great turnaround of 2010
Latest News about traditional investments.
Today is a huge day for this country. Not only did the GOP take back a pivotal seat, but the markets are reacting fiercely and appropriately to a horde of economic data. The possibilities from here are unlimited.
Oddly, the action reminds me of my first few days as a fishing guide. There I was, a typical East Coast grad student with a vision and not much of a plan.
As I dropped my bags on the dock outside the state’s southernmost airport, I used the change in my pocket to dial my only contact in the 49th state. She did not answer. In fact her phone was disconnected.
Great… 4,000 miles from home and stranded in the rain.
I must have looked lost because a bushy bearded that most resembled the kind I’m used to see begging for change, asked me where I was headed. I told him some basic details and he grabbed my bags.
With nothing to lose, I followed.
Within an hour, I was strapped into a floatplane cruising 750 feet above what would turn out to be my new home for the next two years.
On the dock, I saw a figure.
Little did I know it would be the girl I would marry and who is now eagerly counting down the last four months until she becomes a mother.
For me, uncertainty led to great things. I see much the same for the country today.
Over the last six months, the economic data has told us very little. For the last several quarters, we’ve been told to “wait for next month’s figures.” Or we heard “this time next year, things are going to be better.”
So far, even with the help of massive stimulus and governmental manipulation, we’ve done little more than tread water. Instead of following the creepy guy on the dock, we’re waiting around for somebody familiar to pick up the phone.
Until, that is, today. Look at the market. It’s in crazy rough shape, cutting nearly two percent from the top indices.
At first glance, it’s horrifying.
But with some careful studying and a keen eye for what it all means, it is fantastic news. Right now, we’re circling over our destination and are closer than ever to uncovering our fate.
For America, until last night, the question was if the country’s citizens would roll over and let a government force us into something highly unpopular. Today, we know democracy still rules and the political power players are laying flat on their butts from a catastrophic blow.
They may get back up and throw a few more punches our way, but they will never have the deadly dangerous momentum they had just 48 hours ago.
For the nation’s economy – here’s the truly good news – a strong dollar and slipping interest rates proves we remain the beacon of safety for global investors. China may be a powerhouse, but when things get tough, we always run to those we trust the most.
As commodity prices plummet today, the prices you and I pay for just about everything from heating oil to creamed corn will follow. Just as inflation threatened to crimp our shot at growth, Mother Economy proves her ability to create equilibrium.
If all of this is sounding different than what you are hearing on TV or reading in the rags, you’re right. It is different. It’s the contrarian’s take. When everybody is fleeing for the exits, we’re holding the door open, eagerly waiting to take what they left behind.
It’s a good idea to be buying what these folks are selling today.
***As a guy that has spent thousands of hours on the nation’s coastal waterways, I have had my share of run-ins with the Coast Guard – all of them good.
To prove that the core of this nation remains strong and true, I have included a press release my friends at the Coast Guard emailed me this morning. It’s a small glimpse of what Americans are doing to help their global brothers in trouble.
Here it is:
The first U.S. asset to arrive on scene to Haiti after the earthquake remains engaged in Haitian relief operations one week later.
The Portsmouth based Coast Guard Cutter Forward arrived off Port au Prince Jan. 13, at about 8 a.m. The crew provided air traffic control for military aircraft due to the damaged and inoperable control tower at Toussaint Louverture International Airport. They also began assessing the port, and ferrying supplies and injured people with their small boat and helicopter.
One of their primary missions was to pave the way for supplies to be delivered into the port of Cap Hatien. They began assessing the port and noted significant damage and destruction of its infrastructure adding to the difficulty of bringing aid to the country. The Detroit based MH-65 Dolphin helicopter crew, that deployed with the Forward, flew over some of the roadways leaving the port and verified that relief efforts delivered to Cap Haitien can be trucked to Port au Prince. They also observed multiple oil, fuel and sewage spills in the area.
Monday they were able to perform medical evacuations with their helicopter from the Killick Haitian Coast Guard base to the Sacred Heart Hospital in Milot.
“The flight mechanic talked about two children on the first flight who wanted to hold his hand for comfort,” said Cdr. Diane Durham, the commanding officer of the Forward.
“I am glad to be a part of the relief efforts in Haiti. It is a life changing experience and is the reason I joined the Coast Guard. It feels good to be part of something bigger than myself,” said Fireman Kendall Wilson, a crewmember aboard the Forward.
The Coast Guard Cutter Forward deployed with Maritime Intelligence Support Team 0410 and an MH-65 Dolphin helicopter crew from Air Station Detroit.
In total, the Coast Guard has medically transported 29 critically injured U.S. Embassy personnel out of Haiti, evacuated approximately 662 American citizens and delivered 512 urban search and rescue team members to Port au Prince.
The Coast Guard will continue to support the massive relief effort in Haiti by providing humanitarian assistance to Haitian survivors, evacuating critically injured U.S. personnel and evacuating U.S. citizens from Haiti. The complexities crews face with this massive relief operation are immense due to the magnitude of damage to Haiti’s infrastructure.
Additional Coast Guard assets responding to the area are:
- An HC-144A Ocean Sentry aircraft from Coast Guard Aviation Training Center, Mobile, Ala.
- An HC-130J Hercules fixed-wing aircraft from Coast Guard Air Station Elizabeth City, N.C.
- An HC-130 Hercules fixed-wing aircraft from Coast Guard Air Station Sacramento, Calif.
- Two HC-130 Hercules fixed-wing aircraft from Barber’s Point, Hawaii.
- Two MH-65 Dolphin helicopter crews. They are from the Coast Guard HITRON based in Jacksonville, Fla., and Coast Guard Air Station Detroit, Mich.
-Two HU-25 Falcon jet crews from Coast Guard Air Station Miami, Fla.
-The Coast Guard Cutter Valiant, a 210-foot medium endurance cutter homeported in Miami, Fla.
-The Coast Guard Cutter Mohawk, a 270-foot medium endurance cutter homeported in Key West, Fla.
- The Coast Guard Cutter Tahoma, a 270-foot medium endurance cutter homeported in Portsmouth, N.H.
- The Coast Guard Cutter Oak, a 225-foot seagoing buoy tender homeported in Charleston, S.C.That’s the kind of showing that makes me proud to be an American, even if I am contrary.
Original source for this article: Contrarian Profits
The Eye of the Storm
Latest News about traditional investments.
Louis James, Senior Analyst and Editor for Casey’s International Spectator, has compiled a year-end collection of the Casey Research team’s 2010 outlooks and offers them to Contrarian Profits readers.
Louis James (Casey’s International Speculator):
At a recent Casey Research editors’ meeting, the team took on the question of whether the somewhat steady recovery since last February’s washout bottom in the broader markets had any of us thinking that the recession might be over. The gathering of minds included: Doug Casey, Managing Director David Galland, CEO Olivier Garret, Casey Chief Economist Bud Conrad, Senior Energy Analyst Marin Katusa (my counterpart on the energy side), myself heading the metals division, and several other editors.
Doug’s guru-vision remains locked on the disaster channel. The U.S. economic problems, he says, remain so profound and, if anything, have been worsened by the government’s actions, that Americans are headed for a significant lowering of their standard of living.
As this reality unfolds, it will send out shock waves that will impact much of the world: the Greater Depression.
And the next step, Doug believes, will be a change in interest rates. The Bright Boys in DC will resist doing this, but while they seem willing to let the dollar slide to ease their mounting debts, they don’t want it to crash. They may soon be forced to raise interest rates. When that happens, Wall Street usually moves in the opposite direction – which could be the end of the “Things Aren’t as Bad as We Thought” rally of 2009.
Bud Conrad – in proper, responsible chief economist-style – considered the question carefully and conceded that there do indeed seem to be many “green shoots” now, but still concluded that conditions will continue deteriorating. He sees the government deficits in the driver’s seat, the main variable to keep a watch on.
As the U.S. government persists with its spending spree, valiantly dousing the deficit fire with more debt-gasoline, it will continue destroying the dollar, and that will push ever more people into gold.
A year ago, Bud predicted that gold would top $1,150 by year-end 2009. His call was bolder than most forecasters’ – but he was right. Looking at the numbers today, Bud’s new baseline 2010 forecast is for gold to top $1,450. He sees a “possibility of further international instability or currency debasement as adding to that baseline.” In plain language, Bud’s confident that resource stocks of all sorts will, on average, benefit greatly from the demise of the U.S. dollar.
Somehow, I can’t shake the image of Bud singing Don’t Fear The Reaper with Blue Öyster Cult for back-up… but that’s really more like something Marin would do.
Speaking of Marin Katusa, he commented that there is money to be made in the current rebound environment, but speculators should be extremely cautious: “You should know you’re dancing with the devil in the pale moonlight. You need to make sure you know the dance steps: get in early and exit before you get the dip by the devil at the end of the song.” (Marin not only has made huge amounts of money for our subscribers, he sings in a rock band, so he knows what he’s talking about.)
My own thinking has evolved into seeing 2009 as being like the eye of a monstrous storm.
The sky has cleared substantially, and the sea looks amazingly calm, given what we’ve just been through. But it’s not over yet; the trailing edge of the storm always delivers the most damage, and that’s yet to come. Anyone fooled into abandoning shelter is taking a terrible risk.
This doesn’t mean we should stay huddled in our huts, however – it makes more sense to go out, restock supplies, repair what damage we can, and get ready for the deluge to come. The renewed fury of the storm will sink many more ships, but it will also make vast fortunes for those who invest in the ships that survive and even thrive in the tumult.
Essential strategy: For the near term, buy only an initial “tranche” (portion of your desired position) in the most storm-proof (cash-rich) companies you can find – ideally with great discovery or development stories that will deliver exciting news regardless of market conditions – and hold a good chunk of cash in reserve for the next big buying opportunity.
Nothing goes up in a straight line, as share prices over the last month have amply demonstrated. There are some great picks that have been heading up all year that are now paused in their advances. Any more correction in precious metals could put them on sale, temporarily, offering great buying opportunities with a lot of the technical (e.g., discovery) risk removed from the plays. You’ll kick yourself if you don’t have any cash on hand to take advantage of them – and kick twice as hard if you paid too much for a large whack of something that goes on sale.
Worried about sitting on cash with the U.S. dollar in a death spiral? Remember: gold is also cash, highly liquid, and with terrific speculative upside to boot.
With gold having just corrected sharply (as I predicted it would in Casey’s International Speculator), gold is unquestionably the best investment we can recommend right now – fluctuations aside, it has nowhere to go but up for quite some time. Perhaps as long as a decade.
That, plus our essential “eye of the storm” strategy as above is what we’re recommending to all our subscribers – and indeed to all investors around the world who want to not only survive the trailing edge of the financial storm still to come, but thrive because of it.
While gold has gone up 38% since last December, junior gold stocks can provide even greater gains than the yellow metal itself. Currently, for example, Louis is following eight juniors that have all the right conditions to become takeover targets by gold majors… which would drive share prices through the roof. If you want to get in early, this is the time: with our special holiday offer, you’ll save $400 on a one-year subscription of Casey’s International Speculator – but only until midnight, December 18. Hurry up and click here to learn more.
Original source for this article: Contrarian Profits
