Control how much you pay and when you pay
Latest News about traditional investments.
By Andrew Snyder, TodaysFinancialNews.com
Baltimore — (TFN): I have lived “off the grid.” That means I know what it feels like not to get an electric, phone, cable, Internet, water, gas or sewer bill every fourth week.
It’s natural. It’s liberating. And in a not-so-subtle way, it feels like you’re giving a single-finger salute directly to “The Man.”
But now that I’m back in the lower 48 and have presumed the life of “normalcy,” I am as wired as ever. Except, that is, for one thing. I refuse to buy into the monthly cable bill trap.
Why should I pay for something that wastes my time, numbs my brain and promotes a culture that none of us should be proud to live in? It is an especially dumb move when you realize you can get almost all of the programming for free.
If you have been a frequent Notes reader during the past two months, you know I am certain 2010 will be the year that changes the scene in the nation’s media industry. This time next year, who you pay and how much you pay for your boob-tube entertainment is going to change… drastically.
We are already seeing the first wave of industry movement. When Comcast announced its decision to get a majority stake in NBC, we heard the opening bell for round one of the fight.
Now that Rupert Murdoch and his troops at Fox are fighting to get paid for their now-free content, we are entering round two of what appears to be a no-holds-barred fight.
In case you didn’t hear, Time Warner is diligently fighting off an attack from Fox that would force it to pay the over-the-air broadcaster as much as one dollar for each of its cable customers.
That notion alone throws a wrench into the heart of the broadcasting industry. It means advertising revenues will no longer be the driving fiscal force. Subscriber levels will be. It also means folks like me, with an outdated TV and some rabbit ears may be forced to pay real soon.
But then again, this is a dynamic industry. What goes in one side the prism often comes out a different color.
In the other corner of this fight are online offerings like Netflix and even Murdoch’s Hulu. The former is doing its best to shake the industry’s foundations in hopes of climbing atop the ensuing pile of ruble.
In a nod to Murdoch’s a la carte programming idea, Netflix allows subscribers to stream fresh shows and movies to their desktop or Internet-enabled TV sets. If it can gain traction, your days of paying for a slew of unwanted, offbeat channels are over.
You will be able to pick want you want and pay what you want.
For contrarian investors, this is good news. When you ditch your cable bill, you can join me in the single-finger salute, avoid all those government-created taxes and fees and still find the entertainment you crave.
But best of all, the investment potential over the next year will be off the charts. Merger and acquisition action will hit new industry highs. And the stocks that few investors are willing to touch today will surge in value.
If you are a fan of buying when nobody else will, just as I am, now is the time to make your move.
*** Speaking of making a move, herds of investors are taking advantage of a horrible situation by investing in a handful of companies speculated to be winners as the nation’s airports beef up their security.
Because Christmas Day’s failed attempt involved a man getting an explosive device beyond multiple layers of airport security, domestic critics are calling for increased image-based screening.
The technology needed to peak beneath an air traveler’s clothes is already available and in use in some markets. Right now, the high-tech screenings are voluntary, just the way civil liberty advocates want it.
But that may be changing thanks to last week’s attack attempt.
Shares of L-3 Communication (NYSE:LLL) are up by about 4% since the attack as investors ponder the news that Uncle Sam intends to purchase another 150 of its backscatter imaging units at a cost of up to $160,000 each.
But for the big gains, you have to look beyond a massive $10 billion company. Shares of OSI Systems (NASDAQ:OSIS) are up by 17% on the week. And Icx Technologies (NASDAQ:ICXT) has surged by 60%.
Both companies develop and manufacture detection devices that could see hugely increased demand with just one stroke of Obama’s pen.
If you are a true contrarian investor, you’ve got to be thinking the situation is way overblown. After all, groups like the ACLU aren’t going to let screeners freely look under American blouses anytime soon.
There is a very good chance today’s share price momentum will turn around in the New Year. That means there is strong investment potential, especially for savvy options investors.
Earlier today, I told TFN Strategic Trader members to expect this week’s options play to be based on the situation playing out in the world’s currency markets. But given today’s action, we may just have to swoop in and take advantage of the cards we were dealt.
I am never one to fold when I’m holding four aces.
*** Currency trades have got to be drooling over the recent action. Even though many investors were betting against the dollar, a greenback that has rebounded this quickly and this strongly has created lots of investment potential.
One currency investors tend to be overlooking is the anemic British pound. As speculation of rising interest rates boost the dollar and eventually the euro, England’s central bank is likely to be the last low-rate holdout.
For currency traders, a sticky currency like this one opens arbitrage opportunities that should have any carry trade investors cracking a smile.
Finally, for you gold bugs, you know what I’m about to say. The precious metal is down once again. Today, an ounce of gold will cost you $5 less than yesterday, coming in with a price tag of $1,092 per ounce.
In the last month, gold has shed nearly 10% of its value. Get ready to move back into a buying mode.
Original source for this article: Contrarian Profits
Put your hand under the cash waterfall
Latest News about traditional investments.
By Andrew Snyder, TodaysFinancialNews.com
Baltimore — (TFN): We all have a friend like him. For me it’s a guy named Greg. He has some great ideas and his entrepreneurial spirit runs deep, but for some reason, his plans never seem to make it to fruition. Somewhere from the drawing board to the production line, he runs into a debilitating snag.
Most of the time, it’s money.
He’s got great ideas but nary a penny to his name. That’s why I told him to ring up old Uncle Sam… collect. Washington’s handing out all sorts of dollars these days. He might as well put his hand under the waterfall.
According to the Wall Street Journal, the Department of Energy is handing out some $40 billion just to the so-called “clean energy” sector. Greg needs to paint a tree on his latest invention, call it organic and break into 21st century politics, er, business.
From here on out, it’s not what you know, it’s who you know. With Obama acting as economic maestro-in-chief, it’s a whole new world for us business folks.
Which brings me to a sore subject. You see, I recently told Hot Stock Confidential members to buy shares of a tiny little up-and-comer named Raser Technologies (NYSE:RZ).
Now, before I go any further, I don’t want to hear any complaining that I only talk about my winning plays in Notes, because this one was a loser. A big fat flop. Right now, we’re down 45%. It was one, if not the worst recommendations I made this year.
But I’m not selling. Even though I got plenty of heat from internal and external “forces,” I am still not ready to suck it in and lock in the loss.
I’m not holding out because the company’s got a breakthrough product or is about to get bought out. I’m holding on because Uncle Sam is ready to cut Raser a big ole’ check.
When I initially recommended the company in late August, headlines were abuzz with “green” spending. But then, just as suddenly as it started, it stopped. Congress switched gears to healthcare and Raser shareholders were left in the dust.
But Washington never stays in one place too long. It makes for an easy target. So once again, the clean energy industry is heating up. The article in today’s Journal proves it.
With Stimulus 2.0 ready to be released and the DOE spending like an eighteen-year-old who just unlocked his trust fund, this is a fantastic time for Raser and its geothermal electricity production.
After all, just last week it announced it was applying for a Treasury Department grant that could put $33 million into the company’s coffer.
For a firm with a market value of just $90 million, $30 million can do great things.
This play may not have followed a traditional route and is certainly a move that would make any financial advisor soil his suit, but in today’s financial environment, when the government acts as the lender of choice, traditional rules are out the window.
While fundamental investments still have long-term merits, for us short-term traders and especially us contrarians, some of the best investment opportunities can be uncovered by following the White House press pool.
*** Speaking of money, how about Exxon’s big deal today? For us contrarians, the $31 billion, all-stock deal proves the world’s largest oil producer believes its stock is overpriced and ready to fall.
If you’ve read my work for any length of time, you likely know that I am a big fan of signaling theory. According to the common-sense notion, Exxon’s unwillingness to use any of its massive pile of cash is a sign that company executives feel a $69 share of the company is worth less than $69 in cash.
It is no wonder we are watching shares drop by more than 4.7% today. In the long run, today’s news will boost Exxon’s performance. But in the short term, investors have an awful lot to think about.
By far, the biggest news surrounding this story is not what it will do for Exxon or XTO shareholders, but what it will do to the natural gas market.
It’s exciting stuff, especially for those of us that just racked up triple-digit gains thanks to the industry’s recent meanderings. I’m talking to you TFN Strategic Trader members.
Here’s what I wrote for the TFN site today:
“You don’t become one of the world’s largest and most profitable companies by making dumb moves. Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) proves it once again.
“The Street is buzzing today thanks to news that Exxon is printing some $31 billion worth of new shares in order to purchase XTO Energy (NYSE:XTO), one of the nation’s natural gas producing giants. It’s a major deal that has hearts skipping across a variety of sectors.
“Of course, nobody is as excited as XTO shareholders. They woke up to news of a buyout worth a 17% premium to Friday’s closing price.
“Shares of the oil and gas producer slipped by double-digit proportions over the past few months as natural gas prices slide. But now that demand is rising and gas prices are following suit, Exxon officials saw it was time to make their move. With XTO prices reaching short-term lows, Exxon made its move.
“Now that a major non-conventional gas player is making headlines, investors have their eyes on all sorts of potential buyouts. It’s almost impossible to find a company in the energy industry not trading in higher territory today.
“Two stocks you will hear a lot about over the next couple of weeks are Chesapeake Energy (NYSE:CHK) and Range Resources (NYSE:RRC).
“So far today, Chesapeake is up by over 6%, with shares trading close to $25.50 each. The company, with major holdings in all of the popular shale regions, has been a long-term target of buyout rumors. Maybe this time the speculators will be right.
“But my money is on Range Resources. It is a major player in the Marcellus region that just happened to announce significant expansion in the area this morning. Coincidence? Doubt it. It looks more like advertising.
“Range is the right size for a buyout. With a current market value of $7 billion and another $3 billion or so in debt, a buyout could come with a price tag of just over a third of Exxon’s purchase. Whoever decides to grab the company (think Shell or BP) would automatically get more than 180 Mmcf of daily gas production out of the Marcellus region.
“Of course, this is a long-term play. With gas prices plunging to ultra-low territory in recent months, any company purchasing gas assets now has a long-term outlook. With non-conventional plays hotter than a barroom pistol, major producers like Exxon are flocking to the sector in hopes of finding larger profits than their current low-margin deepwater prospects.
“For all of you fans of deepwater drilling, that is bad news, even horrid.”
Read why here.
*** Hey, lookie there. Gold’s up today. With word that Congress is ready to budget yet another couple trillion bucks, the dollar’s a tad bit weaker today.
As I write, gold is up by $3.70 per ounce and the dollar’s down just $0.0019 against the euro. Doesn’t look like buyers of either asset have much conviction.
Today’s just a short-term turnaround in the recent trend. Expect more strength from the greenback and more weakness from the gold market. By the time we sing Auld Lang Syne in a couple of weeks, gold will be trading for $1050 per ounce. That’s when you should be a buyer again.
Original source for this article: Contrarian Profits
The Future of America’s Natural Gas
Latest News about traditional investments.
Contrarian Profits brings you the following report from our colleagues at Casey Research:
Marc Bustin Ph.D., F RSC, is the senior researcher for unconventional oil and gas for Casey Research.
Considered to be one of the top authorities in the world, Marc is the go-to expert for multinational oil and gas conglomerates, and is brought in to help evaluate finds around the world. Marc has reviewed more projects on his own than some exploration teams put together.
Recently, at the Casey Research Energy Summit – a two-day event showcasing the top minds in the energy industry – a small group of investors became privy to Marc’s take on the future of natural gas… his prediction for where prices are heading next year… and some of the companies he believes will profit when natural gas takes off.
For an excerpt of Marc’s presentation, read on… Marc Bustin (Casey Research):
What You Need to Know About Natural Gas
Natural gas prices have plummeted. Natural gas storage is at a maximum. Producible gas reserves are up 35% in the United States. Demand for natural gas is down because of the economy.
Then suddenly a new-found U.S. natural gas producible reserve is suggesting that the U.S. in fact will be self-sufficient or close to it as soon as 2030.
Why are all of these things happening?
A bit of it, of course, is due to the drop in the overall economy, but it has a lot to do with the concept of gas shale, and that’s really what we are going to focus on today.
Where does all this gas come from?
The gas comes from organic matter that is within the rocks. It evolves, bacteria work on it, it generates gas, and most of that gas and oil end up in reservoir rocks, such as the sandstone.
But the rocks with which the organic matter is in the first place, are fine-grained rocks that we use the loose word “shale” for. These are the rocks that have the organic matter that’s cooked, that generates the gas. The gas is generated from the fine-grained rocks and it migrates out into our reservoir rocks, which is our conventional gas production.
If we were to look at the shales in more detail with an electron microscope, you would see that it’s very fine grained and the pores are small. If we look at sandstone, the porosity and permeability (the ability of gas to flow through the rock) is great, and that’s why we can produce it at commercial rates. Traditionally we haven’t been able to produce any gas from shales because there are no pathways for the gas to go out at a very fast rate. Until recently we’ve pretty much ignored these rocks.
If we blew up the pore in a sandstone to the size of the Eiffel Tower – by comparison, the pores in shales are about the size of an eyelet on the compound eye of a bee. In other words, they’re really, really small. There’s a tremendous size/scale difference and that’s why the gas tends to be retained.
The reason that gas migrates out of the rocks is that they’re surrounded by water. All the other pores are filled with water, and because gas or oil is lighter than water, there is a buoyancy effect. It migrates until it’s trapped.
But shales are so fine grained, you don’t need a conventional trapping mechanism. The gas does not move out of these shales because of capillary pressures, and also because the gas is actually absorbed into the mineral and organic surfaces.
That means when we find these shales and these types of deposits, they are not localized. They are very, very laterally extensive, so you don’t really have any exploration risk in terms of finding the shale. The exploration risk is really in whether or not you can develop it.
The economically recoverable gas from the shale is now possible due to development and success of horizontal drilling technology – the development of fracking technology. Higher gas prices in the past gave us the confidence and allowed us to develop the technology. A huge factor is confidence. We know we can do it economically, so we are willing to spend the big dollars that are required to drill and frack one of these wells.
Technology has now made it possible to produce gas from rocks that we couldn’t produce gas economically 10 years ago.
In the past we were drilling more and more wells that produced less and less gas. All of a sudden, things have changed with these shale wells. We are drilling fewer wells, and each well is producing more and more gas – because of the frack technology and the wells being horizontal. Things have changed completely.
Finding and development cost
How much it costs to produce the gas, of course, is going to be equivalent to the resource size – the producible resource size. The bottom line is, there’s lots of gas that could be produced at relatively low prices. For example, EnCana’s projection of producible natural gas is absolutely enormous.
What’s happening in the rest of the world?
The rocks are a little bit different in North America than everywhere else, but there certainly are similar shales in Europe. North Africa has wonderful-looking shales, and so do a few other places – Eastern Australia, for example. There is no reason to suspect they won’t be equally successful producing gas from tight rocks in those areas, as we have been in North America.
There are certainly lots of gas shale potentials in Europe and many companies like Conoco, Exxon, Shell are there – Shell is drilling some gas shale wells in Sweden, for example. Other companies are working in England.
So all of a sudden we are looking at a world where natural gas is perhaps not in a shortage anymore.
Part of the problem is, we have been a little bit too successful – if you’re a service company, a drilling company, or a producer in North America. We’ve been so successful in finding gas, we’ve driven the price way down. The price, in fact, has been too low to sustain drilling and, in some cases, production.
We’ve got a market, we’ve got demand, and we have supply. U.S. natural gas storage is at a maximum. We’re filled up; no more natural gas, please… for the time being at least.
So what does it mean for the price of natural gas?
Since gas prices have taken a major dive, so has the rig count. The rig count is how many rigs are actually drilling. Currently in North America, we’re probably at a 35% to 40% usage of the rigs. This is way down, and the implication is important for the gas price.
Low gas prices means, suddenly we’re drilling a lot fewer gas wells. No one wants to drill anymore.
Currently, in order to maintain U.S. production, we have to add between 17, 18, 19 Bcf (billion cubic feet) additional gas per day. At the current rate of drilling, we’re adding 9 Bcf a day production, so there’s obviously a shortfall.
And a shortfall means eventually the price of gas has to start going up.
Right now, there are a huge number of drillable wells – prospects all ready to be drilled. As soon as the natural gas price gets up above a certain level, these wells will suddenly become economic, and people will start developing them.
So it’s not like we are going to find new “stuff,” we’re just going to start producing the “stuff” we already know exists.
Which companies are going to lose and which are going to win with the new metrics of natural gas?
Losers:
- Gas-weighted companies are in trouble today.
- Small companies with debt, I think are finished – if they’re gas producers.
- Companies only operating in North America are going to have a tough time. If you’re offshore, you’re probably in a lot better shape.
- Companies with no technical expertise – producing gas from shale requires a team of people who actually understand what they’re doing.
Most small companies just can’t play in that sandbox. When things go bad, they go bad. You have to be able to drill a number of wells successfully to be successful. If you can only drill one well and you have no operational experience, you should just take your wagon and go home. That leads me to the winners.
Winners:
- Big companies with some capital to play with.
- Companies with operational experience, or companies that have the depth to develop that operational experience.
- Companies with early land position and low finding and development costs or finding and exploration costs.
- Technically competent companies.
- Small companies who have decent land and have big-company partners.
Some small companies got an early land position, opening the door for big companies to farm in on them. These are perfect situations. The big company is paying the load, and the small company will still get the advantage.
My prediction for gas prices
In my opinion, gas will be $6 or $7 next year. Prices will then soften down to $4 or $5 at the end of next year. Ultimately, the best buys for investors will be small-caps that are farmed out or big companies that have long-term positions.
As mentioned before, Dr. Bustin’s expertise in unconventional gas and oil is unmatched in the industry. If you’re interested in receiving Marc’s entire presentation from the Casey Research Energy Summit… learning from his considerable acumen in natural gas… and getting the scoop on which stocks he believes are poised to profit from the inevitable increase in gas prices, here’s your opportunity.
What’s more, you’ll also get the inside perspective of every energy expert at the summit – on subjects ranging from alternative energy to oil and natural gas, to lithium.
The information revealed at the Casey Research Energy Summit has been, up until now, only available to the small group of investors in attendance.
Now you, too, have the opportunity to arm yourself with the knowledge you need to prosper in the challenging years ahead. Click here for details.
Original source for this article: Contrarian Profits
Trump solves all our woes
Latest News about traditional investments.
Baltimore — (TFN): Another drop in the dollar and another big day for the equities markets. And yes, gold is on the rise as well, precariously perched at the psychologically pertinent $1,200 an ounce mark.
Enough alliteration. Let’s talk business.
While I will never complain about a day that sends almost every position in our portfolio into the green, there are way too many red flags in the air for me to celebrate today.
Sure, the TFN Strategic Trader portfolio currently boasts six plays worth double-digit gains (47%, 44%, 50%, 10%, 29%… and 200%), but it’s a contrarian mix if I’ve ever seen one.
In other words, if our current portfolio is on fire (and it is), something is not right with the nation’s economy.
As with most things American, all we have to do is turn to The Donald for an answer.
Earlier today, Mr. Trump phoned his friends at CNBC. He had a bone to pick and he knew his the staff of “financial experts” – who gladly fill in when a Today Show gab is missing – would lend an ear.
Trump gets a lot of press time, but most of us agree the only thing he’s an expert at is bankruptcy proceedings. Taking his financial advice is like getting a clipping from a blind barber – another of Trump’s apparent flaws.
Sometime during the past few weeks, a bank must have looked at Trump’s credit record and said, “No way, Jose,” because the king of narcissism is angry at the banking industry.
He tells his audience that banks must be forced to lend more of that taxpayer cash they are sitting on. Trump believes the economy will never recover unless the banking sector loosens its standards and starts writing checks again.
Um, Mr. Trump, isn’t that what got us into this mess? Guys like you taking massive loans without a way to pay and then calling a bankruptcy lawyer.
Really, what could go wrong if we follow Trump’s advice and allow the government to force banks to lend?
Sure, most of those shaky loans will never get paid back and we’d be in a worse financial fiasco in eighteen months, but boy would it feel good now.
And there lies your problem. In a world where reality-show wannabes make front page news for embarrassing the White House and a golf star’s car accident gets more press time than Iran’s recent nuclear moves, it is all about feeling good now.
Who cares what tomorrow’s consequences will be? Somebody will bail us out. We feel good now.
It’s sad to say, but that’s the same logic driving the stock market these days.
Sure, the dollar is eroding fast, unemployment is above 10%, the national debt is off the charts, taxes are on the rise, and corporate earnings are stagnant, but dang it, it feels good to pretend it will be a “V-shaped” economy.
Anybody with half a financial brain knows it will all crash down someday, but too many of them just hope and pray that somebody will step in and fix it.
I know from the comments I received about my recent gold commentary, many Notes readily understand what’s to come. That’s why they are rushing to the “safety” of gold.
But let me warn you once again; gold’s recent run has as much to do with the nation’s feel-good-now mentality as the Salahis’ sudden rise to fame.
The collateral on both sides will not be pretty.
My advice? Go short. If it works for TFN Strategic Trader members, it will work for you.
*** With all of this talk about healthcare reform, Afghani strategy, White House crashers and gold’s 30% run, one industry has been greatly overlooked. And, once again, the action comes thanks to the folks in Washington.The ethanol industry – which was recently plagued by bankruptcies and production shutdowns – is soaring these days as it awaits word from the EPA that ethanol allowances in gasoline could be raised from 10% to 15%.
Here’s a bit of what I told TFN readers earlier today:
“The ethanol industry is having yet another good day. After near political abandonment, the nation’s biofuel sector reeled from the pain of a wave of bankruptcy filings earlier this year.
“But now, thanks to some more political maneuvering the industry is once again finding itself on the leader board.
“Should you get used to it?
“Before we answer that question, let’s look at the catalyst for the action. Today was supposed to be the EPA’s deadline for a decision that would allow gasoline blends to contain up to 15% ethanol versus the 10% cap now in place.
“But word this morning says the EPA is not ready to make its decision quite yet. It now wants to make the decision by sometime next summer. Judging by the day’s pricing action, the Street views this as a positive sign.
“Companies across the industry are eager to push more of their product into the nation’s fuel source.
“One of the big winners today is Pacific Ethanol, the once highly touted California-based producer with subsidiaries in and out of bankruptcy court over the past year.
“Word that more ethanol production may be around the corner was enough for the company to pull the mothballs out of its Burley, Idaho production facility by January. The company owns a total of four production facilities, only one of which is currently operating.
“If the word from the EPA is positive, expect shares to continue to climb. As I write, traders are getting in (and out) at $0.87, up 56% on the day.
“Two more companies worth mentioning are…” To find out, keep reading here.
*** Finally, don’t forget about the question of the week: Is it a coincidence the weekly political roundtable programs air at the same time churches offer their weekly services?
We’ll discuss the various views on Friday.
Original source for this article: Contrarian Profits
How do retail sales stack up in an atypical recovery?
Latest News about traditional investments.
Rob Parenteau, currency and credit markets expert, and editor of The Richebacher letter, analyzes the current state of the economy, as represented by retail sales. Can retail really drive the recovery?
Rob Parenteau (The Daily Reckoning):
The U.S. consumer is bound to play only a lackluster role in this recovery. But this has not mattered to buyers of consumer discretionary stocks who are intent on using the typical business cycle recovery playbook in a recovery that is anything but typical.The year-over-year growth rate of October retail sales ex-gas is nearly flat from a year ago, while the overall retail sales momentum is still just shy of closing that gap. With comparisons so easy against a year ago, when the global economy was in free fall, this is not a terribly inspiring result. Excluding autos, the sequential gain in October came up short of expectations, with only a 0.2% advance… Caution is still ruling, and for good reason.
Perhaps the dollar levels of retail sales tell the story more clearly. So far, we at best have a shallow recovery in overall retail sales, while furniture and electrical appliance stores are barely scraping out a trough.
Click here for the rest of Mr. Parenteau’s article at The Daily Reckoning.
Original source for this article: Contrarian Profits
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