Individuals Directly Saved $274 Billion on Dividend Tax Cut, But Payback Time Is Coming
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I am estimating the qualified dividend tax cut savings from 2003 until year-end 2010 have saved direct individual owners of S&P 500 issues $140.70 billion
For the full universe of U.S. domestic common stocks I am estimating another $133.77 billion in savings, for a total of $274.47 billion over the 8 year period
In four months a series of temporary tax cuts initiated under former President Bush in 2003 will expire, resulting in tax rate increases for individuals for capital gains (holdings of at least one-year) and qualified dividends. The scheduled automatic increase for long term capital gains will increase from a maximum of 15% for individuals to a maximum of 20%, with the maximum dividend tax rate increasing from 15% for qualified dividends to 39.6% for all dividends. Starting in 2013 Medicare tax of 3.8% (brings the rate to 43.4%) will be added to high-income individuals. The U.S. Congress is planning on an expanded discussion on tax issues and rates when they return from their summer recess in September. However with major elections in November, and publicly announced plans varying widely, even within the same political party, a potential for no change exists, in which case rates automatically change at year-end. Complicating the situation are pay-as-you-rules, sixty vote requirements, and the possibility of a lame-duck post-election congress, all of which adds up to a situation more difficult to predict than the market.
Any large increase in capital gains could spur investors to sell stocks, therefore avoiding higher rates next year. Under current regulations investors could repurchase the shares they sold at a profit, if they wished, at the same time. The result would be a short-term gain for the U.S. Treasury via increased tax revenue, which is attractive to many in congress as they determine how to pay for existing and planned programs.
The much steeper dividend increase is of concern to investors. Higher dividend tax rates to individual investors would require investors to ‘rethink’ their net income alternatives. However, given the current low interest rate environment on bank certificates and fixed income instruments, the additional tax may not force many to change investment strategies. Corporations may also review their shareholder return policies, given that investors will keep less of what the company distributes as dividends, with additional share buybacks being a potential winner. Special dividends, especially tax differed stock distributions or those classified as a return of investment have been openly discussed, but little has occurred as of yet.
Several items come to mind:
Americans have shown a strong tendency for tax avoidance, therefore capital gain might need to rise more than the scheduled 20% to entice them to pay today for tomorrow’s gains. Brokers and advisers however will most likely (and should) crunch the numbers and present it to investors.
The change in tax rates is an excellent opportunity to review portfolios and make strategic changes; note that inheritance tax returns next year (die now or pay later).
The 39.6% dividend tax rate still leaves stocks competitive with CDs and treasuries, which leaves the investor with the same risk-reward tradeoff question, just at a different level.
With companies now issuing more debt (partially to refinance at lower rates, compared to maturity schedules), and investors ‘appearing’ to accept some risk, lower grade issues could become more attractive to income dependant investors – the very group which should be avoiding risk.
Buybacks are typically a short-term win-win situation. The added buying pushes the stock up (even if it is declining it should reduce the speed), earnings per share benefits almost immediately via the lower quarterly average share count, investors have a larger stake in the remaining company, and from a company’s views the company still owns the stock which can be reissued, compared to a dividend, where if you send me a check I will cash it and expect another one next quarter.
Taxes paid to protect built up profits may be viewed as ‘painless’ by congress.
Nothing is certain in politics and almost everything is up for grabs:
Grandfather capital gains rates if held from a specific time (ie: purchased prior to 9/2009)
Reduced tax rate for initial dividends, in addition to normal tax schedule based on income (ie: first $1,000 exempt or taxed to 15%)
Change in recognition of dividends enrolled in Dividend Reinvestment Program (this would defer taxes)
I would expect considerable discussion on tax policy, along with all the sound bits, political spin and posturing, both before and after the November election. Investors need to keep an eye on taxes, but focus on the specific investments; paying tax on a gain means you have made a profit, and earning 0.10% annual is better than taking a loss.
Original source for this article: Business Week
A Few Q2 Stats or Where We At
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Note that while 86% of the earnings are in (9.28% operating margin), many of the stats require the 10Qs, so reporting varies.
Buybacks – With 60% of the numbers reported, buybacks are running 40% ahead of Q1,’10 and 122% ahead of Q2,’09, which is the lowest quarter I have on record (starts in Q1,’98). The buyback poster child, Exxon-Mobil was restricted in its Q2 buybacks, and the impact is seen in the Energy sector, which is running just 3% higher than Q1,’10. IT remains the dollar leader, and is showing a 27% gain over Q1,’10. IBM is again #1 ($4.10B), with MSFT at second ($3.84B), and P&G on third ($2.58B – they have a long way to match the old XOM record, but they appear to be on their way); XOM is fifth ($1.57B). Telecommunications and Utilities are running at over a 100% increase, but they are working off low comparisons (they are also the 2 smallest sectors). It still appears that companies are buying enough to just keep up with their options, since shares and diluted shares (-0.15%) so far are flat. I expect the rest of the year to continue the same way, with companies taking the necessary steps to neutralize options and earnings dilutions. Buyback program announcements appear to have now slowed, but they are just authorizations and move in cycles; however, it would appear that most companies are back in the buyback trend. If the market improves we could see an increase as companies race to purchase additional shares to cover expiring options that come into the money. While those buyback would register at the full price, the net addition (purchase price – strike price) should be marginal. If the market turns down I would expect some pullbacks, but not significantly given the current outstanding options, strikes and expiration; if the market turns Bear however (12% slide form here), companies will re-evaluate, as will I.
Cash - Q1,’10 set a new record for cash and equivalent in the S&P Industrials (Old) at $837 billion, just as Q4,’09, Q3,’09, Q2,’09, Q1,’09, and Q4,’08 (a full six pack) did. With 70% of the issues accounted for Q2,’10 cash is running 1.1% lower than Q1,’10, which at this point is just statistical noise. While the actual value is relevant to headline news (new record or first fall in 6), the value represents 10.2% of market value and 68 weeks (for those that have reported) of expected 2010 operating income. While there have been ‘requests’ for companies to use the money (more buybacks, increased or special dividends), companies have mostly continued along their conservative spending ways. When they do finally start to spend it could be massive, especially if it is plant and equipment, which could cause manufacturers (some even in the U.S.) to start hiring (recall workers, new ones or extend current hours), which is what I believe the economy needs – jobs.
Capital Expenditures – Not enough data yet, but the reported values are running 3.9% below Q1,’10. An accelerated depreciation schedule would help, but only if it had much higher limits than the previous small-business one. Credits and higher deductions may sway a few, but the overall determination for the company is if they see the need for it. Also, with tax issues just starting to be discussed (behind closed doors, openly after the August recess), we are a long way off from legislation.
Shares – Share counts appear to be flat from Q1,’10, coming in 0.15% lower. Financials have stopped their offerings, with Health Care moving the most, reducing their shares 1.2% – not a lot of action. There has been little Share Count Reduction reported yet.
Dividends – ‘Staying the course’, while increases have continued to pick up, the big story remains the lack of cuts. The bottom line is that year to date S&P 500 companies has added $12.7 billion to shareholders annual income statement, compared to the first eight months of last year when they took away $40.9 billion. Also a dividend tax note below – I expect to put out more on this come September.
YTD there have been four: FII, LTD, VZ, and WY (Weyerhaeuser was for stock valued at $26.41), versus nine for 2009 and 14 in 2008. Diamond Offshore Drilling (DO) has declared a ‘special’ $0.75, in addition to their $0.125 quarterly payment, to which S&P will review for its status. We expect talk of specials, along with the probability of it happening, to increase as the 15% qualified tax dividend tax law approaches its 2010 sunset date. The House has started to take up tax issues, with the Senate scheduled to start after they return from the August recess. Capital gains and dividend tax increases represent attractive income as pay-as-you-go programs come under review, and a 60 vote majority becomes more difficult. The current numbers for dividends being ‘discussed’ (this is politics, which makes predicting the market seem easy) is 28% in Congress and 20% from the White House. Therefore there is the possibility of a large tax gap in qualified dividends paid in 2010 vs. 2011. If Congress doesn’t do anything a $1 dividend paid in December nets you $0.85 vs. $0.604 in January 2011 (not counting a potential med tax). The ’86 Tax Reform Act was the reverse with rates going down, and we saw some companies delay their Q4 to early January. Here we could see January payments paid in December: 41 S&P 500 companies paid $4.0B in the first ten days of January 2010.
Original source for this article: Business Week
No Sales Means No Jobs Means No Recovery
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Last week U.K. scientists determined which came first: the chicken or the egg? They claim it was the chicken. But the Wall Street version is which comes first Sales or Jobs is still open. Consumers don’t want to spend because they don’t feel comfortable about the future, specifically the economy and their job; companies won’t expand – add to plants, spend on capital expenditure, hire workers (full or part time, even extending hours) until their sales pick up. From the company’s viewpoint, why invest to produce more when you aren’t even selling everything you are making now, especially if their earnings are doing well (not to mention they have more cash on hand then at anytime in history). From the consumer’s side, even those who feel secure with their job are watching their bottom line, and money remains tight (and don’t even look at your retirement holdings or benefits). So how do you break the downward cycle of ‘I won’t spend’ therefore ‘I won’t build’? For starters there were the jump start stimulus programs. But here we are trillions later and no jobs. Maybe it would have been worse, maybe we just need more stimuli or maybe we’re just feeding a junkie. Pick a theory, stand at Broad and Wall and preach it. But whatever we’re doing, wherever we are in the process, it hasn’t worked yet, and Americans aren’t known for their patience. So if we don’t start to see some actual improvements soon the tie goes to the down side, and time is not on our side. I’m not looking for a home run, just someone on base would be nice – something to root for.
The above commentary is mine of course, and not part of my earnings review below, but the two do appear to be blending. Maybe I need to step back and look for bias in my reporting, or maybe a 38% increase in earnings isn’t the whole story.
As of last night we had 24.9% of the Q2 earnings reported. So far, the Q2 2010 earnings results are encouraging at first glance. Based on the issues that have actually reported, earnings are 14.5% ahead of estimates, with 65.8% of the issues beating their estimate. Sales, however, are a different story. While 73.4% of the issues have beaten their sales estimate, the “beat” is only slight, with the overall aggregate sales coming in 4.4% ahead of estimates – far less than the 14.5% for earnings. The earning growth over last year’s Q2 2009 is equally impressive, with earnings 38.4% ahead (excluding Citigroup which had a massive loss last year), but sales are a disappointing 6.7% ahead. Anyway you cut it – sales just aren’t cutting it.
I believe comparisons should focus on quarter-over-quarter results to determine the recovery’s progress, as well as the underlying momentum of the economy. And since I believe jobs are number one, and given that companies are generally in good financial shape with excess cash so they can ride out any short term disruption, I look to sales as a future indicator. On this basis, earnings are running ahead of Q1 2010, but sales are flat, and that’s the problem. It’s great that companies have improving earnings, but those improvements are due to high margins, which were the product of cost cuts – specifically job reductions, the very thing that we need to improve now. Until companies and consumers start to spend more, the job front will not get better, but they won’t spend more until they believe things are getting better. The stimulus programs were suppose to jump start the economy and break the downward cycle by convincing both groups that better times were here. But so far we’re not seeing the sales or the jobs; but earnings are good, at least for now.
Original source for this article: Business Week
Stocks: From "Worry Season" to "Earnings Season"
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Alcoa (AA) kicks off second quarter earnings season today, and Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAC) chief U.S. equity strategist David Bianco says we’re moving from “worry season” to “earnings season.”
Bianco writes, in a July 9 research note:
We expect Tech and Industrials to lead positive EPS surprises as corporate spending and industrial [manufacturing] accelerated in Q2. Financials profits should improve from declining bank credit costs despite lower [investment banking] trading volumes and mixed [mergers-and-acquisitions] activity. Energy is the biggest 2Q EPS wild card. While better refining margins and natural gas prices in the quarter are positive to Energy, the oil spill impact is uncertain to the Energy Services companies. Net, we expect Q2 to be a good quarter showing sequential growth in both sales and [earnings per share].
According to Bloomberg’s survey of analysts, earnings for the Standard & Poor’s 500 index are expected to rise 33.2% over the second quarter of last year. The strongest profit growth — 119.8% — is expected to come from the small Materials sector, which includes chemical makers like Du Pont (DD) and Dow Chemical (DOW), and steel makers like U.S. Steel (X). The telecommunications sector, dominated by AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ), is expected to turn in the weakest performance, with earnings down an estimated 5.6%.
On the top line, analysts expect S&P 500 sales to rise 9.45%, with energy leading the way (up 29.73%) and financials trailing (with revenue down 3.5%).
Even if companies do turn in solid profits, equity investors’ problems are hardly solved. Another BofA Merrill Lynch market expert — technical research analyst Mary Ann Bartels — foresees a summer rally for the S&P 500. But, she adds in a July 12 note, “we still maintain lower lows could be reached in the fall.”
Original source for this article: Business Week
Uncertainty Is The Greatest Single Weapon Working Against The U.S.
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Q2 Reporting Starts Monday: Look at Q/Q and Sales
Earnings season starts Monday, and the S&P 500 Q2 2010 earnings are expected to increase 42% over Q2 2009 – great. And the person who had a mid-level job two years ago, then lost it, and took a lower level job a year ago is also doing much better than last year. Right direction, but no where back to where we were. As reporting starts, headlines of double-digit gains will be many, but beating out last year is no great feat. While I believe that year-over-year comparisons traditionally (during normal economic periods) portrays a clearer picture of change, the current recovery requires more emphasis on the quarter-to-quarter change and the underlying momentum. The Q2 S&P 500 EPS increase of 42% to $19.68 from the $13.81 in Q2 2010 is quite different than the 1.5% gain over the Q1 2010 EPS of $19.38. I’m not being a Bear, I’m just trying to cut through the expected spin and put where we are in this recovery, and where the market prices are together.
The sales ‘growth’ story is the same. I am estimating that sales growth for the second quarter will continue to show positive, but slow, growth. Second quarter sales, excluding Financials, are expected to post a 12.2% gain over the second quarter of 2009. However, the gain over that poor performance of 2009 is not impressive, especially when measured against the expected 3.6% gain over the first quarter. In this light, the second quarter growth is slower than would have been expected for a recovery period.
While Q/Q growth is expected to be slow, margins for both Operating and As Reported are expected to stay relatively high due mostly to prior cost cuttings which have reduced cost per unit. The sustained earnings should give some support to the market, but without an upswing in the underlying economy, prolonged earnings growth cannot be sustained.
The bottom line is that earnings may hold up, but sales growth is slow and companies aren’t going to invest their record cash holdings until it improves. Once sales improve companies will have to replenish inventories, increase production, maybe invest in plant and equipment, and hopefully hire workers (full, part or just extending hours). Then we will have growth, as well as lower EPS since higher costs will reduce margins, but people will be working, and then spending and paying taxes.
However, we are not going to get higher sales until people and companies can figure out what is happening. Uncertainty is everywhere: taxes, health care, jobs, stimulus, cut-backs,… How do you invest if you don’t know where you are going? With all due respect to Simon & Garfunkel’s Seven O’clock News (44 years ago), Uncertainty is the greatest single weapon working against the U.S..
See file for detailsSP500_EPS_DIV.XLS
Original source for this article: Business Week
Forex Trading Accounts Managed By Acke World Management Corp
You can get a high yield income from managed Forex accounts. With these types of Forex trading accounts you will invest on Forex Market but someone else (more experienced) will do the trades for you. Acke World gives you the possibility to have a Forex account managed by their company.
Acke World Management Corp is an offshore company incorporated in Belize and the postal address from their website is Levels 22 & 41, West Tower Bahrain Financial Harbour, King Faisal Highway Manama, Bahrain. The phone number listed on their website (for international investors) is +973-1-6199356.
After you register an account on Acke World you will be able to deposit money using Libertyreserve and Perfectmoney and then invest those money in the Forex Market with their company. You will be paid 0.2% daily interest for an year (365 days).
Acke World has management an performance fees but you can diminish those fees by upgrading your account to Silver or Gold membership.
After you will pay all their fees you will still get about a 60% yearly return of investment plus your deposit back, for a $10,000 deposit for example, the profit after one year would be about $6000 in addition to your deposit.
Acke World uses custom investment software. Their programmers did a great job because their script is secured and easy to use. They also have an SSL encryption, your connection with their site will be encrypted keeping your personal details safe.
First 10,000 members will receive a $100 so all you need to do is click here to join their investment program and you will receive $100.
Dividends Post A $62 Billion Turnaround
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The rebirth of dividends in the U.S. domestic market which started in the first quarter of this year has continued in the second quarter, with more issues increasing their cash dividends, but more dramatically, the downslide in decreases has stopped. The hole in investor’s pockets has been closed, but filling it back up again will take years. For the second quarter of 2010 only 34 U.S. common listed issues decreased their dividend rate verses 250 issues that did so in the second quarter of 2009, and increases picked up 43.8% for the period to 335 issues from 233 issues last year. Overall, indicated dividend rates went up $7.0 billion for Q2,’10 verses a $4.9 billion reductions in Q2,’09. The first half of 2010 posted a $13.4 billion increase in dividend rates compared to the $48.6 billion decline in the first half of 2009 – a $62 billion turnaround. But before you go out and celebrate realize that we have just started to come back from the worst dividend period in history. While some companies have increased, it will take years just to get back to where we were in 2008. Specifically I believe it will be 2013, and that is if the economy improves, if not,.. So the bottom line is yes we are headed in the right direction, but the ‘road is lonely, dark and deep’ and many dividend investors need the money now. One other note, the BP suspension, which two months ago would not even have been thought of, has rightfully unnerved dividend investors. They now need to more closely examine potential liability issues. In addition to environmental issues, they need to add medical and consumer products, plant and working conditions, and services to the list of concerns.
Please see file for details
dividends_201006.doc
Original source for this article: Business Week
European Stocks Find Fans at U.S. Funds
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Despite a fiscal crisis in Europe that is dragging stocks lower day after day, European stocks are finding enthusiastic buyers among an unlikely group: American fund managers.
That’s the clear impression from the Morningstar Investment Conference, an annual gathering in Chicago of 1,350 financial advisors, fund managers and other investing pros.
On June 24, the second day of the three-day conference, the Dax Index, a measure of the German stock market, fell 1.4%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index, covering 50 stocks from across Europe, dropped 2.2%, bringing its year-to-date losses to a negative 10.8%.
But also on June 24, managers of global stock funds were extolling the virtues of European equities in panel discussions.
The common theme for these investors: The problems in Europe are serious, but the stock market has overreacted and many European stocks are selling at terrific discounts.
“What’s happening in Europe is of great concern,” said Franklin Mutual Series portfolio manager Philippe Brugere-Trelat, “and that’s the main reason stock markets in Europe are so cheap.”
But, he said at a panel discussion on “stock picking across the globe”: Many companies headquartered in Europe are “not European at all” in the sense that a large portion of their sales and earnings come from outside the continent.
Furthermore, the weaker euro gives a big advantage to European companies selling outside Europe. “The euro at $1.20 is a very big cherry on the cake in terms of earnings and sales,” Brugere-Trelat said. The euro on June 24 was trading at $1.23, down 13.9% from the beginning of 2010.
At a different panel discussion, Artisan Partners portfolio manager Mark Yockey admitted he has a relatively high exposure to European stocks — especially to financial issues that could be most vulnerable to debt problems.
However, he said, many European banks are like his holding, ING, which is one of three main banks in the Netherlands. An oligopoly like that gives ING and other similarly situated banks extra strength and staying power. “We think once things settle down they’re going to grow their earnings,” he said.
Another speaker and manager of foreign stocks on the same panel, Janus Capital Management portfolio manager Brent Lynn, said he has a relatively lower exposure to Europe but that he’s ready to start buying.
“We have more compelling valuations in Europe than I’ve seen in a number of years,” he said. The sovereign debt problems make him “worried … but intrigued by the prospect of buying high quality companies” at cheap prices.
The deals are so good that Lynn said he was considering buying domestically oriented banks in Italy and Spain, two of the most indebted European nations. His targets are “franchises that we think will be survivors.”
If investors are convinced the Europe stock slide has gone too far, this could be a great time to buy. Extending that logic, the market’s continued slide means that European stocks could be an even better deal in the future.
Referring to this, Yockey won a laugh from his audience when he said: “The opportunities are getting better and better every day.”
Original source for this article: Business Week
Online Investing Guide
This is a short article about high yield investment program, for more information about HYIPs you can download the FREE Online Investing Guide.
First you need an e-currency account like Alertpay, Libertyreserve, Perfectmoney, Solidtrustpay (online payment systems). You will use these payment processors to invest and withdraw your profits. Each payment system comes with its own features, Alertpay gives you the possibility to withdraw your money directly in your bank account but Libertyreserve is in an offshore jurisdiction so you will not pay taxes for your profits kept in their payment processor.
HYIP is an acronym for: High Yield Investment Program. As obvious from its name, a HYIP it is an investment program where you get high returns (higher than your local bank accounts offer). This high yield comes with high RISK.
These are usually online investing programs which claim to use your invested amount in Forex, Offshore Trading, Commodities, etc and give away a portion of their profit as a high interest to its investors. Some of the HYIPs even work out the invested amount in other HYIPs and share the profit with you.
HYIPs are online programs (websites) and they may provide a postal contact address where their office is located. You invest in these HYIPs online through their websites using an e-currency.
HYIPs will pay back interest to you on a daily/weekly/monthly basis as per their policies for a specific time period into your e-currency account.
You don’t have to do any kind of activity in return of interest money from them. Thus investing in HYIP means a passive income source where you just invest and sit back & relax while extra money is flowing to you.
Investors are discussing these programs on different forums such as Collective Investments Forum. Is good to create an account on these forums and participate at discussions because you can share your opinion about a specific investment program but, more important, you can read different opinions about a HYIP before deciding to invest in it. In this way you can find out if a program is paying its members or not. You can join a forum at no cost at all so it is a FREE way protect yourself against Scams.
If you want to find out how to make money investing in HYIPs and what is the best investment strategy you can download the FREE HYIP Manual.
Investing in HYIPs is very risky and you must know that investing in HYIPs is illegal in some countries or states. Before investing please check with your local laws to and understand that we cannot be held responsible due to your lack of understanding of laws in your country and area. We do NOT endorse any investment fund. This article is for information purposes only.
Still Sticking With Dividends, But BP, BAC, C, GE Cost Dividend Investors $38 Billions
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The speed of the Financial sector dividend decline, from 30% of the S&P 500 in 2007 to 9% now, appears slow compared to BP. The BP suspension (the largest decrease that I can find) has unnerved dividend investors who now need to more closely examine potential liability issues (call in the lawyers). In addition to environmental issues, medical and consumer products, plant and working conditions, as well as services need to be added to the list.
But dividends are having a great first half of the year, with 10 issues initiating a cash dividend. I am still looking for 5.6% 2010 payment increase over 2009, with another surge (dependant upon the economy) in announcements near year-end.
As for companies not being able to pay or increase dividends, Q1 has set a new record for S&P 500 Industrial cash and equivalent levels at US $837, a 25.9% increase over the US $665 billion of Q1 2009. It is the sixth consecutive quarter of increasing cash, and speaks to not just the improvement in cash-flow, but the unwillingness of companies to commit large amounts of capital for projects. The value is sufficient to fund corporate growth, buybacks, dividends and M&A, if companies choose to spend it.
See file for specific issue data and history
SP500_AND_BP.xls
Original source for this article: Business Week
