Last week U.K. scientists determined which came first: the chicken or the egg? They claim it was the chicken. But the Wall Street version is which comes first Sales or Jobs is still open. Consumers don’t want to spend because they don’t feel comfortable about the future, specifically the economy and their job; companies won’t expand – add to plants, spend on capital expenditure, hire workers (full or part time, even extending hours) until their sales pick up. From the company’s viewpoint, why invest to produce more when you aren’t even selling everything you are making now, especially if their earnings are doing well (not to mention they have more cash on hand then at anytime in history). From the consumer’s side, even those who feel secure with their job are watching their bottom line, and money remains tight (and don’t even look at your retirement holdings or benefits). So how do you break the downward cycle of ‘I won’t spend’ therefore ‘I won’t build’? For starters there were the jump start stimulus programs. But here we are trillions later and no jobs. Maybe it would have been worse, maybe we just need more stimuli or maybe we’re just feeding a junkie. Pick a theory, stand at Broad and Wall and preach it. But whatever we’re doing, wherever we are in the process, it hasn’t worked yet, and Americans aren’t known for their patience. So if we don’t start to see some actual improvements soon the tie goes to the down side, and time is not on our side. I’m not looking for a home run, just someone on base would be nice – something to root for.

The above commentary is mine of course, and not part of my earnings review below, but the two do appear to be blending. Maybe I need to step back and look for bias in my reporting, or maybe a 38% increase in earnings isn’t the whole story.

As of last night we had 24.9% of the Q2 earnings reported. So far, the Q2 2010 earnings results are encouraging at first glance. Based on the issues that have actually reported, earnings are 14.5% ahead of estimates, with 65.8% of the issues beating their estimate. Sales, however, are a different story. While 73.4% of the issues have beaten their sales estimate, the “beat” is only slight, with the overall aggregate sales coming in 4.4% ahead of estimates – far less than the 14.5% for earnings. The earning growth over last year’s Q2 2009 is equally impressive, with earnings 38.4% ahead (excluding Citigroup which had a massive loss last year), but sales are a disappointing 6.7% ahead. Anyway you cut it – sales just aren’t cutting it.

I believe comparisons should focus on quarter-over-quarter results to determine the recovery’s progress, as well as the underlying momentum of the economy. And since I believe jobs are number one, and given that companies are generally in good financial shape with excess cash so they can ride out any short term disruption, I look to sales as a future indicator. On this basis, earnings are running ahead of Q1 2010, but sales are flat, and that’s the problem. It’s great that companies have improving earnings, but those improvements are due to high margins, which were the product of cost cuts – specifically job reductions, the very thing that we need to improve now. Until companies and consumers start to spend more, the job front will not get better, but they won’t spend more until they believe things are getting better. The stimulus programs were suppose to jump start the economy and break the downward cycle by convincing both groups that better times were here. But so far we’re not seeing the sales or the jobs; but earnings are good, at least for now.

Original source for this article: Business Week

Alcoa (AA) kicks off second quarter earnings season today, and Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAC) chief U.S. equity strategist David Bianco says we’re moving from “worry season” to “earnings season.”

Bianco writes, in a July 9 research note:

We expect Tech and Industrials to lead positive EPS surprises as corporate spending and industrial [manufacturing] accelerated in Q2. Financials profits should improve from declining bank credit costs despite lower [investment banking] trading volumes and mixed [mergers-and-acquisitions] activity. Energy is the biggest 2Q EPS wild card. While better refining margins and natural gas prices in the quarter are positive to Energy, the oil spill impact is uncertain to the Energy Services companies. Net, we expect Q2 to be a good quarter showing sequential growth in both sales and [earnings per share].

According to Bloomberg’s survey of analysts, earnings for the Standard & Poor’s 500 index are expected to rise 33.2% over the second quarter of last year. The strongest profit growth — 119.8% — is expected to come from the small Materials sector, which includes chemical makers like Du Pont (DD) and Dow Chemical (DOW), and steel makers like U.S. Steel (X). The telecommunications sector, dominated by AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ), is expected to turn in the weakest performance, with earnings down an estimated 5.6%.

On the top line, analysts expect S&P 500 sales to rise 9.45%, with energy leading the way (up 29.73%) and financials trailing (with revenue down 3.5%).

Even if companies do turn in solid profits, equity investors’ problems are hardly solved. Another BofA Merrill Lynch market expert — technical research analyst Mary Ann Bartels — foresees a summer rally for the S&P 500. But, she adds in a July 12 note, “we still maintain lower lows could be reached in the fall.”

Original source for this article: Business Week

Q2 Reporting Starts Monday: Look at Q/Q and Sales

Earnings season starts Monday, and the S&P 500 Q2 2010 earnings are expected to increase 42% over Q2 2009 – great. And the person who had a mid-level job two years ago, then lost it, and took a lower level job a year ago is also doing much better than last year. Right direction, but no where back to where we were. As reporting starts, headlines of double-digit gains will be many, but beating out last year is no great feat. While I believe that year-over-year comparisons traditionally (during normal economic periods) portrays a clearer picture of change, the current recovery requires more emphasis on the quarter-to-quarter change and the underlying momentum. The Q2 S&P 500 EPS increase of 42% to $19.68 from the $13.81 in Q2 2010 is quite different than the 1.5% gain over the Q1 2010 EPS of $19.38. I’m not being a Bear, I’m just trying to cut through the expected spin and put where we are in this recovery, and where the market prices are together.

The sales ‘growth’ story is the same. I am estimating that sales growth for the second quarter will continue to show positive, but slow, growth. Second quarter sales, excluding Financials, are expected to post a 12.2% gain over the second quarter of 2009. However, the gain over that poor performance of 2009 is not impressive, especially when measured against the expected 3.6% gain over the first quarter. In this light, the second quarter growth is slower than would have been expected for a recovery period.

While Q/Q growth is expected to be slow, margins for both Operating and As Reported are expected to stay relatively high due mostly to prior cost cuttings which have reduced cost per unit. The sustained earnings should give some support to the market, but without an upswing in the underlying economy, prolonged earnings growth cannot be sustained.

The bottom line is that earnings may hold up, but sales growth is slow and companies aren’t going to invest their record cash holdings until it improves. Once sales improve companies will have to replenish inventories, increase production, maybe invest in plant and equipment, and hopefully hire workers (full, part or just extending hours). Then we will have growth, as well as lower EPS since higher costs will reduce margins, but people will be working, and then spending and paying taxes.

However, we are not going to get higher sales until people and companies can figure out what is happening. Uncertainty is everywhere: taxes, health care, jobs, stimulus, cut-backs,… How do you invest if you don’t know where you are going? With all due respect to Simon & Garfunkel’s Seven O’clock News (44 years ago), Uncertainty is the greatest single weapon working against the U.S..

See file for detailsSP500_EPS_DIV.XLS

Original source for this article: Business Week

Acke World Management Corp is an offshore company incorporated in Belize and the postal address from their website is Levels 22 & 41, West Tower Bahrain Financial Harbour, King Faisal Highway Manama, Bahrain. The phone number listed on their website (for international investors) is +973-1-6199356.

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Acke World uses custom investment software. Their programmers did a great job because their script is secured and easy to use. They also have an SSL encryption, your connection with their site will be encrypted keeping your personal details safe.

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The rebirth of dividends in the U.S. domestic market which started in the first quarter of this year has continued in the second quarter, with more issues increasing their cash dividends, but more dramatically, the downslide in decreases has stopped. The hole in investor’s pockets has been closed, but filling it back up again will take years. For the second quarter of 2010 only 34 U.S. common listed issues decreased their dividend rate verses 250 issues that did so in the second quarter of 2009, and increases picked up 43.8% for the period to 335 issues from 233 issues last year. Overall, indicated dividend rates went up $7.0 billion for Q2,’10 verses a $4.9 billion reductions in Q2,’09. The first half of 2010 posted a $13.4 billion increase in dividend rates compared to the $48.6 billion decline in the first half of 2009 – a $62 billion turnaround. But before you go out and celebrate realize that we have just started to come back from the worst dividend period in history. While some companies have increased, it will take years just to get back to where we were in 2008. Specifically I believe it will be 2013, and that is if the economy improves, if not,.. So the bottom line is yes we are headed in the right direction, but the ‘road is lonely, dark and deep’ and many dividend investors need the money now. One other note, the BP suspension, which two months ago would not even have been thought of, has rightfully unnerved dividend investors. They now need to more closely examine potential liability issues. In addition to environmental issues, they need to add medical and consumer products, plant and working conditions, and services to the list of concerns.
Please see file for details
dividends_201006.doc

Original source for this article: Business Week

Despite a fiscal crisis in Europe that is dragging stocks lower day after day, European stocks are finding enthusiastic buyers among an unlikely group: American fund managers.

That’s the clear impression from the Morningstar Investment Conference, an annual gathering in Chicago of 1,350 financial advisors, fund managers and other investing pros.

On June 24, the second day of the three-day conference, the Dax Index, a measure of the German stock market, fell 1.4%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index, covering 50 stocks from across Europe, dropped 2.2%, bringing its year-to-date losses to a negative 10.8%.

But also on June 24, managers of global stock funds were extolling the virtues of European equities in panel discussions.

The common theme for these investors: The problems in Europe are serious, but the stock market has overreacted and many European stocks are selling at terrific discounts.

“What’s happening in Europe is of great concern,” said Franklin Mutual Series portfolio manager Philippe Brugere-Trelat, “and that’s the main reason stock markets in Europe are so cheap.”

But, he said at a panel discussion on “stock picking across the globe”: Many companies headquartered in Europe are “not European at all” in the sense that a large portion of their sales and earnings come from outside the continent.

Furthermore, the weaker euro gives a big advantage to European companies selling outside Europe. “The euro at $1.20 is a very big cherry on the cake in terms of earnings and sales,” Brugere-Trelat said. The euro on June 24 was trading at $1.23, down 13.9% from the beginning of 2010.

At a different panel discussion, Artisan Partners portfolio manager Mark Yockey admitted he has a relatively high exposure to European stocks — especially to financial issues that could be most vulnerable to debt problems.

However, he said, many European banks are like his holding, ING, which is one of three main banks in the Netherlands. An oligopoly like that gives ING and other similarly situated banks extra strength and staying power. “We think once things settle down they’re going to grow their earnings,” he said.

Another speaker and manager of foreign stocks on the same panel, Janus Capital Management portfolio manager Brent Lynn, said he has a relatively lower exposure to Europe but that he’s ready to start buying.

“We have more compelling valuations in Europe than I’ve seen in a number of years,” he said. The sovereign debt problems make him “worried … but intrigued by the prospect of buying high quality companies” at cheap prices.

The deals are so good that Lynn said he was considering buying domestically oriented banks in Italy and Spain, two of the most indebted European nations. His targets are “franchises that we think will be survivors.”

If investors are convinced the Europe stock slide has gone too far, this could be a great time to buy. Extending that logic, the market’s continued slide means that European stocks could be an even better deal in the future.

Referring to this, Yockey won a laugh from his audience when he said: “The opportunities are getting better and better every day.”

Original source for this article: Business Week

First you need an e-currency account like Alertpay, Libertyreserve, Perfectmoney, Solidtrustpay (online payment systems). You will use these payment processors to invest and withdraw your profits. Each payment system comes with its own features, Alertpay gives you the possibility to withdraw your money directly in your bank account but Libertyreserve is in an offshore jurisdiction so you will not pay taxes for your profits kept in their payment processor.

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HYIPs are online programs (websites) and they may provide a postal contact address where their office is located. You invest in these HYIPs online through their websites using an e-currency.

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Investing in HYIPs is very risky and you must know that investing in HYIPs is illegal in some countries or states. Before investing please check with your local laws to and understand that we cannot be held responsible due to your lack of understanding of laws in your country and area. We do NOT endorse any investment fund. This article is for information purposes only.

The speed of the Financial sector dividend decline, from 30% of the S&P 500 in 2007 to 9% now, appears slow compared to BP. The BP suspension (the largest decrease that I can find) has unnerved dividend investors who now need to more closely examine potential liability issues (call in the lawyers). In addition to environmental issues, medical and consumer products, plant and working conditions, as well as services need to be added to the list.

But dividends are having a great first half of the year, with 10 issues initiating a cash dividend. I am still looking for 5.6% 2010 payment increase over 2009, with another surge (dependant upon the economy) in announcements near year-end.

As for companies not being able to pay or increase dividends, Q1 has set a new record for S&P 500 Industrial cash and equivalent levels at US $837, a 25.9% increase over the US $665 billion of Q1 2009. It is the sixth consecutive quarter of increasing cash, and speaks to not just the improvement in cash-flow, but the unwillingness of companies to commit large amounts of capital for projects. The value is sufficient to fund corporate growth, buybacks, dividends and M&A, if companies choose to spend it.

See file for specific issue data and history
SP500_AND_BP.xls

Original source for this article: Business Week

Warren Buffett says: “Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.” But sometimes it is very difficult to follow this advice, and the current situation for BP’s (BP) stock shows why.

While images of oil-covered birds and tar balls washing onto formerly pristine beaches may give some investors pause, the market, as always, is trying to focus on what the stock is worth given current information. The oil giant’s stock fell more than 50% from Apr. 20, when the massive oil spill began in the Gulf of Mexico, to June 9. Since then, some investors have been getting greedy, pushing shares up 15.8% from their low.

The decision to buy BP stock makes some sense. Even after downgrading the stock on June 10, Standard & Poor’s equity analysts peg BP’s 12-month target price at $58. On June 9, Morningstar lowered its “fair value estimate” for BP shares from $56 to $40. Both those estimates are still well above June 11′s close of $34.

But is it even possible to assign a price to BP shares at this point? I’m skeptical because all the usual ways we value stocks seem to not be working.

1. We don’t begin to understand the true impact of the current situation.

The best example is the news that scientists now estimate the oil well is spewing 20,000 to 40,000 barrels of oil per day. That’s up from a May 27 estimate of 12,000 to 19,000 per day. In other words, we really have no clue how much oil ultimately will end up in the ocean — and what the final cost of the cleanup will be.

2. We don’t know BP’s true financial strength.

The Atlantic’s Daviel Indiviglio does some of the math on the possible impact of the oil spill on BP’s finances. Even taking into account BP’s costs so far, the company still might be making a profit of $9 million per day, he calculates.

I’d add that valuing BP’s businesses based on financial metrics was already difficult before the spill. The price of oil is highly variable, which means that predicting BP’s future prospects is very difficult. According to Bloomberg, this is the quarterly free cash flow for BP over the past 7 quarters (starting from the first quarter of 2010 to the third quarter of 2008): $3.4 billion, $1.6 billion, $3.1 billion, $1.5 billion, $755 million, -$143 million (yes, that’s negative), $7.1 billion.

3. History is no guide.

Morningstar’s Jeremy Glaser points out that markets reacted very differently to the Exxon Valdez spill in 1989:

Exxon stock was trading at a little more than $11 a share before news of the Valdez crash March 24, 1989.The stock steadily fell during the coming weeks, bottoming out at $10.44 on April 11, a fall of less than 7%. Exxon’s share price was then able to quickly make up ground and keep increasing, ending 1989 7% above where the stock was before the accident.

4. This is becoming a political issue.

As British research firm McCall, Aitken, McKenzie & Co. noted June 9:

There remains a chance that the political fervor in the U.S. (and elections are happening now) will whip up to a point where BP gets red carded. [In soccer/football, getting a red card means you've been ejected from the game.] It would be foolish to dismiss that as an impossibility. The fines and penalties due are commercial financial calculations but as we have been saying for several weeks, this is beyond ‘business.’

Adding to the complicated political math, British Prime Minister David Cameron is sticking up for BP, saying it must remain “financially strong and stable.” He is due to tell President Barack Obama that on June 12.

If the BP oil spill is now “beyond business,” the spill’s long-term impact is impossible to calculate. And with the company’s prospects as clear as oil-fouled seawater, investors may not want to make any moves just yet.

Original source for this article: Business Week

I do an annual foreign report based on the S&P 500. Reporting requirements are poor, and companies are big on pictures and bad on tabular tables. The result is that only half the issues supply sufficient data for the report. What investors need is a matrix, similar to the one that shows the impact interest rates have on pensions, where we would know what is produced where, then where it is sold, and finally, where it is booked – and of course if there is any currency hedging going on against either the production or the sale. With that information we can quantify the impact of changing currencies, and then the impact on profits. I would put the chances of getting any of that at significantly less than the Giants and Jets meeting under a sunny sky in the 2014 Super Bowl. That all said (as it has been for years), I am attaching a list of several hundred S&P 1500 issues that have declared their 2009 fiscal sales, along with a few ratios. It will not permit you to create a matrix, but it’s all we get, so start with it.

Initial fiscal 2009 numbers show U.S. 2009 foreign sales in the S&P 500 slightly dropped from to 46.97% from last year’s 47.94%, after 5 years of increases. Foreign income taxes paid are again ahead of U.S. Federal income taxes, but at a lower rate: Foreign is 52.4%, down from 55.8% in 2008. European sales accounted for the largest share (slightly less than 30%) of declared foreign sales (or 14% of total sales).

There are several aspects for European sales. The S&P SmallCap600 has only 4% in European sales, but may benefit from imported component parts used in their product (which they may not have to pass along to their customers – capitalists), while larger issues may loose both on sales and translation, but be insulated by size. The full report will be issued in July (June is Pensions & OPEB – a 26% market gain in 2009 hasn’t helped that much; also in June are Q1 final cash and buybacks, and potentially dividends – it’s been a very good half).

SP1500_EUROPEAN_SALES.xls

Original source for this article: Business Week